Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 5.0 pts to 9.7 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.5 pts to 19.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.0 pts to 28.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.5 pts to 38.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.0 pts to 47.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.5 pts to 57.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.0 pts to 66.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.5 pts to 76.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.0 pts to 85.7 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 90.5 pts to 95.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 100.0 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TN-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +47.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +52.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026