Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.4 pts to -48.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -44.9 pts to -41.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -38.5 pts to -35.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -32.1 pts to -28.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -25.6 pts to -22.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.2 pts to -16.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -12.8 pts to -9.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -6.3 pts to -3.1 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 0.1 pts to 3.3 pts | 5.4% |
| 6.6 pts to 9.8 pts | 2.2% |
| 13.0 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TN-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +36.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026