Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -43.3 pts to -40.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -37.7 pts to -34.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -32.0 pts to -29.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -26.4 pts to -23.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.8 pts to -18.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -15.2 pts to -12.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -9.5 pts to -6.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -3.9 pts to -1.1 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 1.7 pts to 4.5 pts | 5.4% |
| 7.3 pts to 10.1 pts | 2.2% |
| 13.0 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TN-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 16% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +18.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +15.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026