Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -56.6 pts to -53.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -50.9 pts to -48.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -45.3 pts to -42.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -39.7 pts to -36.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -34.0 pts to -31.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -28.4 pts to -25.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -22.7 pts to -19.9 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -17.1 pts to -14.3 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -11.4 pts to -8.6 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -5.8 pts to -3.0 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -0.2 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · TN-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +44.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +28.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026