Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -58.8 pts to -55.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -53.1 pts to -50.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -47.4 pts to -44.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -41.7 pts to -38.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -36.0 pts to -33.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -30.3 pts to -27.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -24.7 pts to -21.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -19.0 pts to -16.1 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -13.3 pts to -10.4 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -7.6 pts to -4.8 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -1.9 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · TN-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +60.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +30.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026