Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -62.3 pts to -59.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -56.6 pts to -53.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -51.0 pts to -48.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -45.4 pts to -42.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -39.7 pts to -36.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -34.1 pts to -31.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -28.5 pts to -25.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -22.9 pts to -20.1 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -17.2 pts to -14.4 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -11.6 pts to -8.8 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -6.0 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · SD-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +44.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +34.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026