Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -4.6 pts | 0.4% |
| 0.1 pts to 4.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.6 pts to 14.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.1 pts to 23.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.6 pts to 33.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.1 pts to 42.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.6 pts to 52.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.1 pts to 61.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.6 pts to 71.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 76.1 pts to 80.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.6 pts to 90.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · SC-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +23.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +42.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026