Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -46.1 pts to -42.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -39.6 pts to -36.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -33.2 pts to -29.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -26.7 pts to -23.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.2 pts to -17.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.7 pts to -10.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -7.3 pts to -4.0 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -0.8 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 2.5 pts to 5.7 pts | 7.9% |
| 8.9 pts to 12.2 pts | 3.5% |
| 15.4 pts to 18.7 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · SC-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 14.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +27.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026