Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -47.5 pts to -44.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -41.9 pts to -39.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.3 pts to -33.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -30.7 pts to -27.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -25.0 pts to -22.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.4 pts to -16.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -13.8 pts to -11.0 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -8.2 pts to -5.3 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -2.5 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 0.3 pts to 3.1 pts | 3.5% |
| 5.9 pts to 8.7 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · SC-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +23.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026