Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -56.1 pts to -53.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -50.3 pts to -47.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -44.5 pts to -41.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -38.7 pts to -35.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -33.0 pts to -30.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -27.2 pts to -24.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -21.4 pts to -18.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -15.6 pts to -12.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -9.9 pts to -7.0 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -4.1 pts to -1.2 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| 1.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · SC-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +47.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +27.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026