Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -36.3 pts to -33.3 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -30.3 pts to -27.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -24.3 pts to -21.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -18.2 pts to -15.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -12.2 pts to -9.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -6.2 pts to -3.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -0.2 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 2.9 pts to 5.9 pts | 13.7% |
| 8.9 pts to 11.9 pts | 7.9% |
| 14.9 pts to 17.9 pts | 3.5% |
| 20.9 pts to 23.9 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · SC-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 28.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +16.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +6.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026