Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -1.1 pts | 0.4% |
| 1.8 pts to 4.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.7 pts to 10.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.5 pts to 16.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.3 pts to 22.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.2 pts to 28.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.0 pts to 33.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.8 pts to 39.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.7 pts to 45.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.5 pts to 51.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.4 pts to 57.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · PA-17 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 86.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +7.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +28.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026