Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -45.6 pts to -42.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -39.2 pts to -36.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -32.9 pts to -29.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -26.6 pts to -23.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.2 pts to -17.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.9 pts to -10.7 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -7.6 pts to -4.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.3 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 1.9 pts to 5.1 pts | 7.9% |
| 8.2 pts to 11.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 14.6 pts to 17.7 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · PA-16 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 14.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +27.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026