Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -57.2 pts to -53.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -49.8 pts to -46.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -42.4 pts to -38.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -35.0 pts to -31.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -27.6 pts to -23.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -20.2 pts to -16.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -12.7 pts to -9.0 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -5.3 pts to -1.6 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts to 5.8 pts | 5.4% |
| 9.5 pts to 13.2 pts | 2.2% |
| 16.9 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · PA-15 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +42.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +20.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026