Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.8 pts to -48.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -45.1 pts to -41.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -38.4 pts to -35.0 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.6 pts to -28.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -24.9 pts to -21.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -18.1 pts to -14.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -11.4 pts to -8.0 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -4.7 pts to -1.3 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts to 5.5 pts | 5.4% |
| 8.8 pts to 12.2 pts | 2.2% |
| 15.6 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · PA-14 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 11.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +33.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +18.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±17.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026