Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -60.2 pts to -56.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -52.5 pts to -48.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -44.8 pts to -40.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -37.1 pts to -33.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -29.3 pts to -25.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -21.6 pts to -17.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -13.9 pts to -10.0 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -6.2 pts to -2.3 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 1.6 pts to 5.4 pts | 5.4% |
| 9.3 pts to 13.1 pts | 2.2% |
| 17.0 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · PA-13 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +48.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +21.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026