Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -44.8 pts to -41.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -38.5 pts to -35.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -32.3 pts to -29.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -26.1 pts to -22.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -19.8 pts to -16.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.6 pts to -10.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -7.4 pts to -4.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.1 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 2.0 pts to 5.1 pts | 7.9% |
| 8.2 pts to 11.3 pts | 3.5% |
| 14.5 pts to 17.6 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · PA-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 14.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +25.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026