Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -56.2 pts to -52.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -48.9 pts to -45.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -41.6 pts to -37.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -34.3 pts to -30.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -27.0 pts to -23.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.7 pts to -16.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -12.4 pts to -8.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -5.1 pts to -1.5 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 2.2 pts to 5.8 pts | 5.4% |
| 9.5 pts to 13.1 pts | 2.2% |
| 16.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · PA-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +41.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026