Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -20.1 pts to -17.3 pts | 1.2% |
| -14.5 pts to -11.7 pts | 3.5% |
| -8.8 pts to -6.0 pts | 7.9% |
| -3.2 pts to -0.4 pts | 13.7% |
| 2.4 pts to 5.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.0 pts to 10.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.6 pts to 16.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.2 pts to 22.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.8 pts to 27.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.4 pts to 33.3 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · PA-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 70.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +1.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +8.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026