Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -19.4 pts to -16.6 pts | 1.2% |
| -13.8 pts to -11.0 pts | 3.5% |
| -8.2 pts to -5.3 pts | 7.9% |
| -2.5 pts | 6.1% |
| 0.3 pts to 3.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 5.9 pts to 8.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.5 pts to 14.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.1 pts to 19.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.7 pts to 25.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.3 pts to 31.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.9 pts to 36.7 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · PA-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 72.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +1.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +8.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026