Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 4.5 pts to 7.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.5 pts to 13.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.5 pts to 19.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.4 pts to 25.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.4 pts to 31.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.4 pts to 37.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.4 pts to 43.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.4 pts to 49.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.4 pts to 55.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.4 pts to 61.4 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.4 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · PA-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 89.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +12.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +34.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026