Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 10.9 pts to 14.8 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.7 pts to 22.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.4 pts to 30.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.1 pts to 38.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.8 pts to 45.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.5 pts to 53.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.3 pts to 61.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.0 pts to 68.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.7 pts to 76.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.4 pts to 84.3 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 88.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · PA-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +30.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +49.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026