Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 8.8 pts to 12.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.2 pts to 18.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.5 pts to 24.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.8 pts to 31.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.2 pts to 37.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.5 pts to 43.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.9 pts to 50.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.2 pts to 56.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.5 pts to 62.7 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.9 pts to 69.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · PA-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 92% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +18.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +40.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026