Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -32.2 pts to -29.3 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -26.5 pts to -23.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -20.8 pts to -18.0 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -15.1 pts to -12.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -9.5 pts to -6.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -3.8 pts to -0.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 1.9 pts to 4.7 pts | 16.5% |
| 7.6 pts to 10.4 pts | 10.7% |
| 13.2 pts to 16.1 pts | 5.4% |
| 18.9 pts to 21.7 pts | 2.2% |
| 24.6 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · PA-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 35% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +12.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +3.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026