Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -0.1 pts | 0.4% |
| 2.8 pts to 5.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.6 pts to 11.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.4 pts to 17.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.2 pts to 23.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.0 pts to 28.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.8 pts to 34.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.6 pts to 40.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.4 pts to 46.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.2 pts to 52.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.9 pts to 57.8 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · OR-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 86.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +6.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +28.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026