Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -4.4 pts | 0.4% |
| -1.5 pts | 0.8% |
| 1.4 pts to 4.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.2 pts to 10.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.0 pts to 15.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.8 pts to 21.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.6 pts to 27.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.4 pts to 33.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.2 pts to 39.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.9 pts to 44.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.7 pts to 50.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.5 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · OR-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 83.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +2.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +24.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026