Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 25.1 pts to 28.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.6 pts to 34.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.0 pts to 41.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.5 pts to 47.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.0 pts to 54.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.4 pts to 60.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.9 pts to 67.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.3 pts to 73.6 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 76.8 pts to 80.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.3 pts to 86.5 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.7 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · OR-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +45.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +57.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026