Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -59.1 pts to -54.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -49.8 pts to -45.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -40.4 pts to -35.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.0 pts to -26.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -21.6 pts to -16.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -12.2 pts to -7.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -2.8 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 1.9 pts to 6.6 pts | 13.7% |
| 11.3 pts to 16.0 pts | 7.9% |
| 20.7 pts to 25.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 30.1 pts to 34.8 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · OR-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 19.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +32.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +12.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026