Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 24.3 pts to 27.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.7 pts to 33.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.1 pts to 40.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.4 pts to 46.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.8 pts to 53.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.2 pts to 59.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.6 pts to 65.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.9 pts to 72.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.3 pts to 78.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.7 pts to 84.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 88.0 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · OR-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +41.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +56.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026