Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -57.4 pts to -54.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -51.8 pts to -49.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -46.2 pts to -43.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -40.5 pts to -37.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -34.9 pts to -32.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -29.3 pts to -26.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -23.7 pts to -20.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -18.0 pts to -15.2 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -12.4 pts to -9.6 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -6.8 pts to -4.0 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -1.2 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · OK-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +39.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +29.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026