Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -48.1 pts to -45.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -41.9 pts to -38.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -35.7 pts to -32.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -29.5 pts to -26.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -23.4 pts to -20.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -17.2 pts to -14.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -11.0 pts to -7.9 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -4.8 pts to -1.7 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 1.4 pts to 4.4 pts | 5.4% |
| 7.5 pts to 10.6 pts | 2.2% |
| 13.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · OK-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +27.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +17.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026