Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -33.9 pts to -31.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -28.3 pts to -25.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -22.7 pts to -19.8 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -17.0 pts to -14.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -11.4 pts to -8.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -5.8 pts to -3.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -0.2 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 2.6 pts to 5.4 pts | 13.7% |
| 8.3 pts to 11.1 pts | 7.9% |
| 13.9 pts to 16.7 pts | 3.5% |
| 19.5 pts to 22.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · OH-15 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 30.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +12.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +5.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026