Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -8.2 pts to -5.2 pts | 1.2% |
| -2.3 pts | 1.4% |
| 0.6 pts to 3.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 6.5 pts to 9.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.3 pts to 15.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.2 pts to 21.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.0 pts to 26.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.9 pts to 32.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.7 pts to 38.6 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.6 pts to 44.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.4 pts to 50.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · OH-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 81.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +0.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +21.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026