Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -48.8 pts to -45.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -42.9 pts to -40.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -37.0 pts to -34.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.1 pts to -28.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -25.2 pts to -22.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.3 pts to -16.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -13.5 pts to -10.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -7.6 pts to -4.6 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -1.7 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 1.3 pts to 4.2 pts | 3.5% |
| 7.2 pts to 10.1 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · OH-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +35.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026