Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -49.7 pts to -46.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -43.8 pts to -40.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -37.9 pts to -34.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.9 pts to -29.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -26.0 pts to -23.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -20.1 pts to -17.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -14.2 pts to -11.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -8.2 pts to -5.3 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -2.3 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 0.7 pts to 3.6 pts | 3.5% |
| 6.6 pts to 9.5 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · OH-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +36.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +20.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026