Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 7.4 pts to 12.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.9 pts to 21.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.4 pts to 31.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.9 pts to 40.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.4 pts to 50.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.9 pts to 59.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.4 pts to 69.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.9 pts to 78.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.4 pts to 88.2 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 92.9 pts to 97.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 102 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · OH-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +41.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +54.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026