Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -53.1 pts to -50.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -47.0 pts to -43.9 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -40.9 pts to -37.8 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -34.8 pts to -31.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -28.6 pts to -25.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -22.5 pts to -19.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -16.4 pts to -13.3 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -10.3 pts to -7.2 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -4.2 pts to -1.1 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| 1.9 pts to 5.0 pts | 2.2% |
| 8.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · OH-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +47.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +22.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026