Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -1.6 pts | 0.4% |
| 1.6 pts to 4.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.0 pts to 11.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.3 pts to 17.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.7 pts to 23.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.1 pts to 30.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.4 pts to 36.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.8 pts to 43.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.2 pts to 49.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.6 pts to 55.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.9 pts to 62.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · OH-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 87.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +9.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +30.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026