Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 27.3 pts to 30.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.2 pts to 36.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.2 pts to 42.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.1 pts to 48.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.1 pts to 54.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.0 pts to 60.0 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.0 pts to 65.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.9 pts to 71.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 74.9 pts to 77.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.8 pts to 83.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 86.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-26 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +30.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +57.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026