Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -52.4 pts to -47.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -43.0 pts to -38.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -33.6 pts to -28.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -24.2 pts to -19.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -14.8 pts to -10.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -5.4 pts to -0.7 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 4.0 pts to 8.7 pts | 16.5% |
| 13.4 pts to 18.1 pts | 10.7% |
| 22.8 pts to 27.5 pts | 5.4% |
| 32.2 pts to 36.9 pts | 2.2% |
| 41.6 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NY-23 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 28.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +31.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +5.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026