Published · Updates are manual.
35.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -42.2 pts to -37.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -32.7 pts to -27.9 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -23.1 pts to -18.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -13.5 pts to -8.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -4.0 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 0.8 pts to 5.6 pts | 19.8% |
| 10.4 pts to 15.2 pts | 18.6% |
| 20.0 pts to 24.7 pts | 13.7% |
| 29.5 pts to 34.3 pts | 7.9% |
| 39.1 pts to 43.9 pts | 3.5% |
| 48.7 pts to 53.5 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · NY-21 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 47.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +24.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +5.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026