35.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -40.8 pts to -36.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -31.2 pts to -26.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -21.6 pts to -16.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -12.1 pts to -7.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -2.5 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 2.3 pts to 7.0 pts | 19.8% |
| 11.8 pts to 16.6 pts | 18.6% |
| 21.4 pts to 26.2 pts | 13.7% |
| 30.9 pts to 35.7 pts | 7.9% |
| 40.5 pts to 45.3 pts | 3.5% |
| 50.1 pts to 54.8 pts | 1.2% |
Live model read · NY-21 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 50.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +23.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +7.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Aug 26, 2026