87.3% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -20.7 pts to -16.7 pts | 1.2% |
| -12.7 pts to -8.6 pts | 3.5% |
| -4.6 pts to -0.6 pts | 7.9% |
| 3.4 pts to 7.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.4 pts to 15.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.4 pts to 23.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.4 pts to 31.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.5 pts to 39.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.5 pts to 47.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.5 pts to 55.5 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.5 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · NY-17 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 77.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +19.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±20.6 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026