Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 33.8 pts to 37.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.2 pts to 43.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.6 pts to 49.9 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.1 pts to 56.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.5 pts to 62.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.0 pts to 69.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.4 pts to 75.6 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.8 pts to 82.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.3 pts to 88.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.7 pts to 94.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 98.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-13 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +67.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +66.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026