Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 16.2 pts to 20.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.7 pts to 30.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.3 pts to 40.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.9 pts to 49.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.4 pts to 59.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.0 pts to 68.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.6 pts to 78.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.1 pts to 87.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 92.7 pts to 97.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 102 pts to 107 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 112 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-12 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +61.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +64.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026