Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -50.6 pts to -45.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -41.2 pts to -36.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -31.8 pts to -27.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -22.4 pts to -17.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -13.0 pts to -8.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -3.6 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 1.1 pts to 5.8 pts | 18.6% |
| 10.5 pts to 15.2 pts | 13.7% |
| 19.9 pts to 24.6 pts | 7.9% |
| 29.3 pts to 34.0 pts | 3.5% |
| 38.7 pts to 43.4 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · NY-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 32.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +28.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +3.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026