Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 32.5 pts to 35.6 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.8 pts to 41.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.1 pts to 48.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.3 pts to 54.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.6 pts to 60.8 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.9 pts to 67.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.2 pts to 73.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 76.5 pts to 79.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 82.8 pts to 86.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.1 pts to 92.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 95.4 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +50.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +63.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026