Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 16.4 pts to 20.8 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.2 pts to 29.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.0 pts to 38.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.7 pts to 47.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.5 pts to 55.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.3 pts to 64.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.1 pts to 73.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 77.8 pts to 82.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 86.6 pts to 91.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 95.4 pts to 99.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 104 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +56.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +60.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026