Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 1.0 pts to 3.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 6.8 pts to 9.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.6 pts to 15.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.4 pts to 21.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.2 pts to 27.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.0 pts to 32.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.8 pts to 38.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.6 pts to 44.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.4 pts to 50.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.2 pts to 56.1 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.0 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 83.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +2.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +30.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026