Published · Updates are manual.
45.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -40.9 pts to -36.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -32.4 pts to -28.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -24.0 pts to -19.8 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -15.6 pts to -11.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -7.2 pts to -3.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| 1.2 pts to 5.4 pts | 19.8% |
| 9.6 pts to 13.8 pts | 16.5% |
| 18.0 pts to 22.2 pts | 10.7% |
| 26.5 pts to 30.7 pts | 5.4% |
| 34.9 pts to 39.1 pts | 2.2% |
| 43.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NY-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 43.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +19.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +1.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026