45.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -50.8 pts to -45.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -39.7 pts to -34.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -28.6 pts to -23.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -17.6 pts to -12.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -6.5 pts to -1.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| 4.6 pts to 10.1 pts | 19.8% |
| 15.6 pts to 21.1 pts | 16.5% |
| 26.7 pts to 32.2 pts | 10.7% |
| 37.7 pts to 43.3 pts | 5.4% |
| 48.8 pts to 54.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 59.9 pts | 0.4% |
Live model read · NY-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 56.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +4.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±28.4 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026