Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -26.9 pts to -23.3 pts | 1.2% |
| -19.7 pts to -16.1 pts | 3.5% |
| -12.5 pts to -8.9 pts | 7.9% |
| -5.3 pts to -1.7 pts | 13.7% |
| 1.9 pts to 5.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.1 pts to 12.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.3 pts to 20.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.6 pts to 27.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.8 pts to 34.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.0 pts to 41.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 62.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +10.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · R +3.0 pts PPP poll, 2025-12-11 · PPP
D +9.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026